CNN writes:
"The credit market crisis, combined with the recent stock market
declines and the plunge in home values over the past two years,
is setting off the deflationary alarm bells for economists.
Paul Kasriel, chief economist with Northern Trust in Chicago, said
most bouts of deflation have started with sharp declines in assets
such as stocks or homes. That has tended to lead to a loss of value
of collateral for loans and ultimately, large losses by lenders
and very tight credit"
Remember that a housing bubble has burst not only in the U.S., but
in France,
Spain,
Ireland
and the United
Kingdom, Eastern
Europe, and many
other regions. China
is slowing down as well.
And stocks are down worldwide.
This may point towards global deflation.
The Economist writes:
"A global recession is almost certainly on the way . . .
With commodity prices falling sharply ... and economies suffering,
inflation risks are evaporating in the rich world. .... Deflation
is an increasing risk."
The Telegraph provides
impressions of the slow down spreading all around the world:
The commodity and emerging market booms are breaking in unison,
leaving no more bubbles left to burst. Almost
every corner of the world is now being drawn into the vortex of
debt deflation.
The freight rates for Capesize vessels used to ship grains, coal,
and iron ore have fallen 95pc to $11,600 since May, hence the bankruptcy
of Odessa’s Industrial Carriers last week with a fleet of
52 vessels. Cargo deliveries dropped 15.2pc at the US Port of Long
Beach last month, but that is a lagging indicator.
From what I have been able to find out, shipping is slowing as
fast as it did in the grim months of late 1931. “The crisis
is now in full swing across the entire world,” said Giulio
Tremonti, Italy’s finance minister. “It is hitting the
real economy, the productive forces of industry. It’s global,
it’s total, and it’s everywhere,” he said.
Italy’s industrial output has fallen 11pc in the last year.
Foreign orders have dropped 13pc. But we are all in much the same
boat. Europe’s car sales fell 9pc in September (32pc in Spain).
US housing starts fell to a 45-year low in September.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund had to rescue Hungary
and Ukraine as contagion swept Eastern Europe ....
Russia’s foreign reserves have fallen by $67bn since August.
Ural crude prices fell to $65 a barrel last week, below the budget
solvency threshold of the now extravagant Russian state.
The new capitalists have to repay $47bn in foreign loans over
the next two months. In Russia, oligarch fiefdoms built on leverage
- Mikhail Fridman (Alfa), Oleg Deripaska (Basic Element), and Vladimir
Lisin (Novolipetsk) - are lining up for state bail-outs from a $50bn
rescue fund.
Brazil is free-fall as well. Sao Paolo’s Bovespa index is
down a third in dollar terms in a month. Hopes that the BRIC quartet
(Brazil, Russia, India, and China) would take over as the engine
of world growth have proved yet another bubble delusion.
China says 53pc of the country’s 3,600 toy factories have
gone bust this year. Economist Andy Xie says China is at imminent
risk of its own crisis after allowing over-investment to run rampant,
like Japan in the 1980s. “The end is near. They’ve been
keeping this house of cards going for a long time with bank support,”
he said.
Indeed, China's GDP has slowed from 12 percent to under 10 percent,
and the Financial Times
writes
that "Indicators hint China [is] on verge of slowdown", and may be in
for a hard landing.