Majority of Americans Believe Iraq Is in 'Civil War', Poll Finds

Wall Street Journal
Thursday, November 30, 2006

A majority of Americans think Iraq is in the midst of a civil war, a new Harris Interactive poll finds, and few are confident that Robert Gates's nomination as Secretary of Defense will improve the situation there.

Sixty-eight percent of U.S. adults said they believe there is a civil war in Iraq, the online poll from Nov. 13 to Nov. 20 found, compared with 14% who disagree and 18% who aren't sure.

Mr. Bush nominated former director of the Central Intelligence Agency Mr. Gates as a successor to Donald Rumsfeld on Nov. 9.

Of 2,429 U.S. adults polled, only 13% think Mr. Gates will make the situation in Iraq better. Forty-two percent think he will make no difference and another 40% say they aren't sure of the impact.

About half of those polled would like the government to set a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops in Iraq, while 18% favor withdrawing all U.S. troops now and 19% favor sending more troops to stabilize the situation.

"Do you believe there is a civil war in Iraq now?"

Base: All Adults

	Total
Yes, is civil war	68%
No, is not	14%
Not sure	18%

"Which of the following possible scenarios would you like to see the U.S. government undertake with regard to Iraq?"

Base: All Adults

	Total
Withdraw all troops now	18%
Set a timetable for withdrawal	51%
Send more troops to Iraq to stabilize the situation	19%
Not sure	12%

"Which of the following is closest to your opinion?"

Base: All Adults

		Party ID
	Total	Republican	Democrat	Independent
It was a mistake to take military action against Iraq in the first place	42%	9%	66%	46%
Taking military action against Iraq was the right thing to do, but things have gotten off course there	40	56	27	42
Taking military action against Iraq was the right thing to do and things are going reasonably well	13	30	3	9
Not sure	5	4	4	4

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"President Bush has recently announced that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld will be stepping down. Do you think this is a good or bad thing for the U.S.?"

Base: All Adults

		Party ID
	Total	Republican	Democrat	Independent
Good thing	61%	49%	73%	68%
Bad thing	9	14	5	8
Not sure	30	36	22	24

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Robert Gates, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), has been nominated by President Bush to succeed Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense.

"Do you think this will:

Base: All Adults

	Total
Make the situation in Iraq better	13%
Make no difference to the situation in Iraq	42%
Make the situation in Iraq worse	5%
Not sure	40%

Methodology:

The Harris poll was conducted online within the U.S. between Nov. 13 - 20, 2006 among 2,429 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online. In theory, with probability samples of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 2 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. This online sample is not a probability sample.