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Cloudy sky casts shroud around North Korea missile plan Jon Herskovitz / Reuters | June 20 2006 Clouds and storms closed in on Tuesday on a site where North Korea may be preparing to test a long-range missile, potentially delaying a flight regional powers have warned the reclusive state not to launch. U.S. officials say evidence such as satellite pictures suggests Pyongyang may have finished fuelling a Taepodong-2 missile, which some experts said could reach as far as Alaska. But some U.S. officials said suggestions of an imminent missile launch were based on incomplete intelligence and satellite photos pointed to nothing conclusive, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday. Seoul is not sure if North Korea has finished fuelling the missile, lawmaker Chung Hyung-gun told reporters after a briefing with South Korean intelligence agency officials. Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington have said a launch would present a grave threat to regional security, while the United States and Japan have promised harsh action if the test flight goes ahead. China, the North's closest ally, said it had no details of any test-flight preparations and called for calm. South Korea's weather agency forecast overcast skies and storms on Tuesday in North Hamgyong province, where North Korea has a launch site, and said this should be the pattern for the rest of the week as a storm front moves through. Analysts say clouds and storms would make it difficult for North Korea to track a missile once in flight, decreasing the likelihood of a launch. "You don't want to test launch a missile into a storm," said Peter Beck, a Korea analyst in Seoul for the International Crisis Group. Reports of test preparations coincide with a stalemate in six-party talks on unwinding Pyongyang's nuclear arms programs. Some analysts believe that North Korea is piqued world attention has shifted to concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions and angered at a U.S. crackdown that has frozen hard currency income from alleged illegal activities such as money laundering. PLAYING A FINESSE GAME? Beck said that by raising the prospect of a missile test, the Stalinist state had successfully grabbed global attention and rattled security concerns, but he was not sure if Pyongyang would scrap the launch in the face of pressure or go ahead. "If they are really playing a finesse game they will back away but ... they are not known for their finesse game," he said. Alexander Vershbow, U.S. ambassador to Seoul, told reporters on Tuesday any work on a potential delivery system, such as a missile, for a nuclear weapon creates a serious security threat. Proliferation experts have said it is not likely North Korea has the technology to miniaturize a nuclear weapon so that it can be mounted on a missile. South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, speaking at an arms control conference in Geneva, said a long-range missile launch would be a serious setback for international efforts to curb the spread of weapons of mass destruction. In Seoul, a spokesman for the ruling Uri Party said after meeting government officials that South Korea had explained to Pyongyang the grave consequences of a launch and urged the North not to fire a missile. In an official media report on Tuesday, North Korea called on Washington not to develop space-based weapons, saying it had a "deep-rooted scheme to gratify its ambition of world supremacy", but it did no mention its own missile or satellite ambitions. North Korea shocked the world in 1998 when it fired a missile, part of which flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean. Pyongyang trumpeted that as a satellite launch. "A missile launch is North Korea's second-biggest 'card' after a nuclear test, and they would have to seriously consider the timing," said Masao Okonogi, a Korea expert at Keio University in Tokyo. "I think this is a bluff," he said. ---------------------------------------------------
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