While global warming is the current the-sky-is-falling mantra, many
scientists are warning of an impending cooling trend.
Follow this link to the original source: "The
Sun Also Sets"
When I was a lad in primary school, we were warned of climate change.
It was a tad scary, too, as the prospect of becoming an icicle in a
frozen wasteland wasn't very appealing. Hey, we wanted to be able
to go outside and sometimes play with balls not made out of snow.
Yes, it was said another ice age might be nigh.
This isn't surprising. It was the early 1970s and temperatures had
been dropping for the previous 30 years or so.
That's right, dropping.
This is one of the problems with "living in the moment." While
we often place great emphasis on it, it can be perilous when evaluating
phenomena. It's much like a frog experiencing his first winter and
thinking the days of verdant meadows are gone forever. Perhaps he is
surprised when the flowers bloom next spring.
So it is with climate change today. Many people are a tad solipsistic
and behave as if the happenings during their existence define reality;
yet, the history that must inform here is that of the world, not that
of our own little world.
This is why the anthropogenic global warming hysteria is truly fascinating.
It's as if those in its grip never heard the phrase "ever-changing
Universe." In point of fact, the only constants this side of Heaven
are Truth and change. And the climate is no exception.
Nor is recent history. After a noticeable temperature increase from
the mid-19th century till about 1940, there was that mid-20th century
cooling trend; this was following by a return to warming between the
mid-1970s and late 1990s. Now even that has abated, with temperatures
having remained relatively flat or even dropping since 1998. Someone
please tell Al Gore.
Why these natural cycles exist is a subject of some debate. While CO2
is widely "implicated" in global warming (and the notion that
CO2 is harmful is a bit fanciful; for instance, crop yields increase
when CO2 levels are higher; this is why gardeners pump it into greenhouses),
a better explanation might be fluctuating solar cycles. This is the
assertion of Canadian scientists conducting research on climate change.
Reporting on this, Investor's Business Daily tells us:
R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton
Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says that 'CO2
variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on
long, medium and even short time scales.'
Rather, he says, 'I and the first-class scientists I work with
are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular
fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising.
The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet.'
This information isn't new or revolutionary, just largely ignored.
Of course, I've also heard that temperature variations are related
to the amount of salt in the oceans, so I'm unsure of what the cause
is. And I'm certainly no climate scientist.
I'm also not a frog.
So I am quite sure of what the cause isn't: Man. This is because
I know history.
The Earth has seen at least four major ice ages and numerous minor ones
during the last 1.5 million years, and each cycle was followed by a
period of warming. And these and other climatic vagaries occurred despite
the absence of man's meddling hands. For example, there was:
- The Cryogenian
Period, during which the planet was entirely covered by ice and
snow.
- A period where glaciers were virtually gone the world over.
- The time of the dinosaurs, where CO2 levels were 5 to 10 times what
they are today and foliage was lush.
- An age when the Florida sea level was 100 feet higher than today
and another when it was 300 feet lower.
More recently, we experienced what is known as the "Little Ice
Age," which followed the "Medieval Warm Period" and extended
from approximately the 16th century to the mid-19th. Thus, it isn't
surprising that we had been experiencing a slight warming because we
have been emerging from that period. To read more about this, read Professor
Syun-Ichi Akasofu's article on the recovery
from the Little Ice Age at TheNewAmerican.com.
Aside from history, a grasp of current events wouldn't hurt, either.
Note that:
Oh, we shouldn't base conclusions on anecdotal evidence?
Exactly.
Yet, when we view these events against the backdrop of trends, both
historical and recent, it appears reasonable to conclude that the sun
might have set on global warming.
Whatever the trend, it's even more reasonable to say that it's
the work of Mother Nature, not man. The Earth has many seasons: The
90,000-year ice-age cycles and 10,000-year interglacial warm periods;
1500-year
cycles of warming and cooling; and then winter, spring, summer and
fall. There are cycles, cycles within cycles, and cycles within those
cycles. It's a very confusing picture, but one that was drawn before
man graced the planet and by a hand infinitely more powerful.
As for our current capacity for understanding climate, Richard
S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at
MIT, describes "weather and climate science" as being in a
"primitive state." Thus, are we to believe predictions about
the temperature 50 years hence? Science can't even tell us definitively
what the weather will be like on Thursday. The only thing we can know
for sure is that it will be different.
And the only ones who don't understand this are frogs and those
who mistake moments — chronological or ideological — for a fair sample
of eternity.
