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Candidate Paul May Be Nader With a Twist SETH GITELL Ron Paul could be the Ralph Nader of 2008. Only this time, a third-party candidacy could hurt the Republicans, not the Democrats. For now, Mr. Paul's campaign is dismissing talk of a run as anything other than a Republican, and the candidate himself is focused on the primaries. "Ron's committed to running for the Republican nomination or nothing," a spokesman for Mr. Paul, Jesse Benton, said. Mr. Paul, who ran as a Libertarian presidential candidate in 1988, said the same to the Wall Street Journal last month. Nevertheless, the relative success the Texas congressman is having on the campaign trail has political observers envisioning how a Paul third-party candidacy would shake out. The possibility of a candidacy by Mr. Paul on the Libertarian ticket began being discussed in earnest after last month's Republican debate in Michigan, when Chris Matthews of MSNBC asked him if he promised to back the Republican nominee. "Not right now I don't," he said, adding, "Not unless they're willing to end the war and bring our troops home, not unless they're willing to look at excessive spending." In an election that pitted, say, Mayor Giuliani against Senator Clinton, at whom the anti-war movement has bristled, Mr. Paul might find a rationale for a candidacy. And given Mr. Paul's strong fund-raising numbers during the third quarter of 2007, his campaign having garnered $5.2 million and possessing $5.4 million of cash on hand, he has outperformed expectations.
"Would he hurt the Republicans? The answer is yes. Could he hurt them somewhat in the Deep South?" a Democratic strategist, Hank Sheinkopf, said. "Could he do to them what Ralph Nader did to the Democrats in 2000? The answer is yes." Mr. Paul's presence is currently making itself felt on the Internet, where he is raising almost 80% of his money, and on the ground in New Hampshire, where his sign-holding supporters are a frequent sight on the campaign trail. In New Hampshire, Mr. Paul's campaign has distributed a direct mail piece and produced radio and television ads giving informed Republicans the sense that he may finish as high as third place in the Granite State, which Patrick Buchanan won in 1996 with a somewhat similar, though not identical, angry outsider message. A former political consultant to Jesse Ventura and Ralph Nader, Bill Hillsman, the president of North Woods Advertising, said a third-party candidacy for Mr. Paul could pick up steam. "You can see the potential there for something if he had some breakthrough messaging," Mr. Hillsman said. "He's got a little bit of money and some strong supporters. It reminds me of the Jesse Ventura thing in Minnesota. His people sound pretty dedicated. You can go a long way with that kind of dedication and support." Asked whether there was a possibility Mr. Paul could draw from the right and left, Mr. Hillsman said "I think there could be. … If they don't like their choices in a general, it could happen."
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