| Dollar Reserve Status Is Tale of Fading Glory: Michael R. Sesit Michael R. Sesit Reserve currency status is like your health: Abuse it, and you risk losing it. With the dollar's 45 percent decline against the euro during the past six years and its 37 percent drop on a trade-weighted basis, there is a growing concern that the greenback's six-decade reign as the world's most important currency may be ending. It's not. The dollar is the world's reserve currency, and absent some unexpected exogenous shock, will probably remain so for some time. Nonetheless, the dollar's premier status is under threat, especially as a store of wealth, by both foreign governments and private investors. Also, companies are using it less as a currency in which to invoice and settle international trade transactions.
Why care? Reserve currency status allows the U.S. government to borrow in its own currency, lets the U.S. run large trade deficits, and helps the government and American companies to fund themselves at low interest rates. It makes it easier for U.S. companies to do business and increases the international demand for U.S. assets. Moreover, as the specie of choice, the dollar is blessed with seigniorage, the interest-free loan America receives from the hundreds of billions of dollars held overseas and hoarded as misfortune insurance. Although the composition of official central-bank foreign- exchange holdings receives the lion's share of attention when people talk about reserves, it is the private sector's trade in goods and services that plays a dominant role in determining a currency's international status. Cash Reserves Official reserves equal 33 percent of global imports, according to UBS AG. If a company in country A trades with a company in country B and the transaction is invoiced and settled in the currency of country C, that third currency will have reserve status. That's because both companies are likely to keep cash balances in that currency. ``The dollar is the most important reserve currency in the world, but it is no longer the only reserve currency, nor even the overwhelmingly dominant choice as a reserve currency,'' says Paul Donovan, a London-based economist at UBS.
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