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U.S. intelligence loses track of N. Korea nukes

Insight | May 23 2006

The U.S. intelligence community has conceded that it has lost count over North Korea's nuclear program.

Government sources said the intelligence community has concluded that Pyongyang has produced at least a dozen nuclear weapons. But the sources said the nuclear facilities are so far underground that they can't even venture a credible estimate of the production rate.

"Everybody's talking about Iran," a source close to the intelligence community said. "Iran is the future threat. North Korea is today's threat and we have no idea how big that threat really is."

North Korea's nuclear weapons program has led to Pyongyang’s refusal to return to six-party talks, the sources said. The program has also convinced South Korea to propose economic aid to Pyongyang. A summit between the two Koreas has been scheduled for June.

The sources said the North Korean nuclear weapons program could become a major factor in determining when Iran reaches similar capability. They said Pyongyang, as it has done with missiles, could quickly supply components and technology to ensure Iranian nuclear capability.

"Even if we bomb Iran, the North Koreans could quickly revive the nuclear weapons program," the source said. "As it stands now, we have no plan to stop North Korea."

In 2004, the sources said, the intelligence community assessed that North Korea had produced sufficient plutonium for up to 10 nuclear bombs.

But they said that over the last 18 months Pyongyang was believed to have significantly increased production of fissile material and probably succeeded in designing nuclear warheads.

"Every day of the status quo is another day for the North Korean regime to produce additional fissile material," House subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific Chairman James Leach said.

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