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Irish Referendum May Doom EU Dream for United States of Europe Bloomberg With less than 1 percent of the European Union's population and just over 1 percent of its economy, Ireland has 100 percent control over the bloc's ambition to become a United States of Europe. Ireland this week becomes the only one of the EU's 27 member nations to put its new governing treaty to a direct vote of citizens. Because defeat anywhere will kill the agreement everywhere, it is up to Irish voters to decide whether the alliance will move toward the political unity envisioned by its post-World War II founding fathers. A veto in the June 12 referendum would cripple the bloc's long-time effort to parlay its economic might into a stronger voice in world affairs. The treaty is the ``culmination of the effort to revamp the EU after the fall of communism and enlargement to new members from eastern Europe,'' says John K. Glenn, director of foreign policy at the German Marshall Fund in Washington. ``It allows the EU to get its act together on issues such as homeland security, terrorism and immigration.'' While every other country is ratifying the treaty through parliamentary action -- 15 have already done so -- Irish law requires that such measures be put to the voters. For most of the campaign, polls showed a plurality in favor of the accord. But opposition has been growing, and an Irish Times/TNS MRBI poll published June 6 for the first time gave opponents a lead, 35 percent to 30 percent. A poll published by the Sunday Business Post yesterday showed supporters leading by 42 percent to 39 percent, within the margin of error, with 19 percent undecided. 2001 Redux? Supporters are concerned about a repeat of 2001, when a last-minute surge of opposition defeated the EU's current, more limited governing treaty. After a concerted campaign, pro-Europe forces managed to win approval in a rerun of the election a year later.
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