North Korea appears to be preparing to test-launch its longest range
ballistic missile, media reports said on Tuesday, just days after
Pyongyang warned that the Korean peninsula was on the brink of war.
Analysts say the possibility that North Korea would start an all-out
war with the South is low because Pyongyang knows its underfunded
military is no match for the U.S.-backed modern military of its Southern
neighbour.
But the following scenarios could unfold:
A NAVAL SKIRMISH
The North has threatened military action over a disputed sea border off the west coast and it previously triggered clashes in 1999 and 2002 that killed or wounded dozens of sailors on both sides. The 1999 battle was orchestrated by the North's military with its leader Kim Jong-il's close involvement and caught the South by surprise, according to intelligence sources.
The North may be hesitant to spark another battle after its navy was badly outgunned by a superior South Korean force in the last firefight in 2002. Since then, the North's Soviet-era navy has become more obsolete while the South's has increased its firepower and technology.
What has changed is the North's deployment of more short-range missiles. The North could raise tension by firing missiles into waters claimed by the South or at one of its ships.
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BORDER GUNFIGHT
A shootout along the Demilitarised Zone border could easily ignite a broader gunfight involving many of the more than 1 million troops who are deployed on both sides of the buffer zone that has divided the peninsula since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a cease-fire and not a peace treaty.
But a land battle is unlikely because of the chance it could trigger a bigger conflict. A more likely scenario is for the North to conduct massive military training manoeuvres or send aircraft just close enough to the border so that the South has no choice but to respond.
