North Korea might stage a second atomic test to raise the stakes in nuclear disarmament negotiations next year but the new US administration is unlikely to yield, a South Korean think-tank said Monday.

It warned it could not rule out the possibility the North may threaten to suspend denuclearisation, boycott six-party disarmament talks and fire missiles or even a nuclear weapon "to tame the new Obama administration or increase its leverage in the nuclear negotiations."

"North Korea may become less reasonable in the face of growing challenges from instability of its regime and rumours of leader Kim Jong-Il's ill health," said the report from the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, which is under the foreign ministry.

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But incoming President Barack Obama, it forecast, would be tougher than his predecessor in dealing with what it called Pyongyang's brinkmanship.

The communist state staged its first nuclear test in October 2006 while the six-party negotiations were at a stalemate.

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